A 1-to-1 scale mockup of the new Global Combat Aircraft Program, GCAP, the sixth-generation fighter-bomber developed by the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan through BAE Systems, Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, was unveiled late last July at the Farnborough International Airshow.
Despite being "only" a mock-up of the future aircraft the GCAP model has gained the attention of the trade and non-trade press. First, the model comes after unpromising news about the corresponding U.S. sixth-generation program, Next Generation Air Dominance, NGAD. And then the size of the future GCAP has partly surprised insiders.
NGAD is the U.S. program launched in 2014 to replace the F-22 Raptor but has received a wet blanket in recent weeks regarding rising costs and the possibility of having to radically rethink the design of a sixth-generation aircraft. A projected cost of $250 million per each aircraft (almost double that of an F-22) for an ambitious program, but for which to date there is not even certainty about the specifications, is forcing the Pentagon to rethink the program. That's the gist of an interview with Secretary of State for the Air Force France Kendall published by Defense News, which caused many news outlets to call the program dead. Popular Mechanics headlined "In the End, the Air Force's Secret New Fighter Jet May Never Actually Fly." An interview that was later partially retracted after the GCAP exploit and in which Kendall stated that this was not a stop, just a pause for thought to make sure the U.S. program is on the right track.
This is the climate in which the GCAP model arrived at Farnborough: the Anglo-Italian-Japanese program is proceeding while the U.S. Air Force seems almost to have arrived on the verge of throwing in the towel. In fact to date the GCAP is the only sixth-generation program that has started toward real prototyping, and in comparison with the star-studded aerospace industry, as Gianluca Di Feo wrote in La Repubblica, the GCAP is something "that not even Lockheed-Martin or Boeing are daring."
Another element that made headlines was the size of the GCAP. The 1:1 model of the GCAP is larger than insiders expected. Larger than both the model of the BAE Tempest shown at Farnborough in 2018, and the Mitsubishi X-2 Shinsin technology demonstrator that had flown in 2016, both of which merged into the GCAP program.
In describing the size and effect of the model, aviation journalist Gareth Jennings recalled on X an old Cold War glory: the General Dynamics F-111 Ardvark, the first supersonic fighter-bomber with variable-sweep wing that entered service in 1967. A crucial aircraft in influencing several later designs such as the Grumman F-14 Tomcat and the Panavia Tornado.
Actually, looking at the dimensions disclosed by some news outlets, the GCAP should be smaller than an F-111 that measured 22 meters in length and 19 meters in wingspan with open wings. The dimensions should be more similar to those of the F-14. Still a larger aircraft than the Tornados yet in service. Dimensions in line with Russian and Chinese fifth-generation multi-role aircraft: Sukhoi Su- 57 and the Chengdu J-20.
Larger aircraft means more space for weapons and fuel. Evident compared to the Tempest and early renders is the GCAP's volume growth while maintaining a careful stealth silhouette. A necessary change of pace due to the shifting needs of the geopolitical chessboard and the evolving warfare environment. An evolution both on the air-to-air side, where drone saturation attacks have emerged among the new threats, and in the air-to-ground context, with the growing importance of stealth cruise missiles.
The changed air-to-air context is demonstrated by Iran's retaliatory strike against Israel last April 13 with the launch of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles. Net of the undoubted Israeli anti-air capabilities, it was such aircraft as the F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bombers of the 494th Squadron, a unit credited with shooting down 70 drones, that were decisive. Although the F-15E is an aircraft that entered service in the late 1980s based on a 1970s design, it still remains an unmatched platform in the Western field in terms of its load capacity and number of pylons available for armaments. A crucial detail to cope with possible drone swarms. Strike Eagle del 494° Squadrone, reparto a cui è stato attribuito l’abbattimento di 70 droni. L’F15-E pur essendo un velivolo entrato in servizio alla fine degli anni ’80 basato su un progetto degli anni ’70, resta ancora oggi una piattaforma ineguagliata in campo occidentale per capacità di carico e numero di piloni disponibili per gli armamenti. Un dettaglio fondamentale per fronteggiare eventuali sciami di droni.
Overbearingly emerging from the Ukrainian front is the role of airborne stealth cruise missiles, such as the Storm Shadow/SCALP, among the most successful Western weapons. Five-meter-long weapons that cannot be installed in the weapon compartments of the F-35. To date, F-35s can accommodate a single JSM, a cruise missile smaller than the SCALP and developed by Norway and the United States, in the two compartments. Weapons still go to occupy the entire compartment of the multi-role fighter, which can still accommodate external loads, but with obvious detriment to stealth capabilities.
The increased size of the GCAP will thus go in the direction of greater capacity and greater volume.
An unrivaled GCAP?
As mentioned, the GCAP is the sixth-generation project ahead of its time. The U.S. NGAD program for the Air Force and the related F/A-XX for the Navy are on a deepening pause, with the two contenders, Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, still far from a prototype.
Also far off is the Franco-Spanish-German Future Combat Air System, FCAS (SCAF, Système de combat aérien du futur), whose affair is in some ways reminiscent of that of the MGCS program, the Franco-German Main Battle Tank. Although a mock-up of the FCAS had been unveiled at the Paris Air Show in 2019, the program is still in the definition phase. Incidentally, Germany had in late 2023 ventilated the possibility of joining the GCAP program by abandoning the French joint venture. But it should be noted that apart from German expertise, which has been consolidated over the years with successful programs such as the Panavia Tornado and the Eurofighter Typhoon, on the aviation side in recent years Germany has been increasingly tied to French preeminence in the Airbus consortium. And Berlin's attempt to move closer to GCAP, may have been a simple ploy to achieve greater spillovers in the FCAS program.
The United States, France, and Germany are thus in a preliminary specification phase. While in the UK, BAE Systems is busy building the airframe of the first GCAP demonstrator, following last year's ejection seat tests. And also in 2023, Leonardo acquired a second Boeing 757 as a flying testbed for the electronic suite of the future GCAP, a program called Excalibur.
Not to forget the experience gained by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which had already flown one of its own aircraft in 2016, although the X-2 Shinshin as a construction philosophy was closer to a fifth-generation aircraft.
Labour shadows over London
Of course, clouds are not absent from the GCAP program regarding the transition from Tory to Labour government in the United Kingdom. While reassuring counterparts, a review of current military programs is underway. These include the extremely expensive ones for the new Dreadnought class of SSBM and the AUKUS SSN program, however, all programs within BAE Systems' perimeter.
Also on the industrial side, the UK is clamoring to remain in the GCAP program. This is reiterated by The Times, which recalls how over the years wicked choices on the industrial and military plan have greatly reduced the capabilities of the country's aircraft industries. Save for the engine excellence of Rolls Royce, among the leading aircraft engine manufacturers, the British subsidiaries of Airbus (aerostructures) and Leonardo (helicopters), and the consortium making elements for the F-35, the portfolio of aircraft flown by BAE Systems, heir to British Aerospace, has shrunk somewhat. Only the Eurofighter Typhoon production line remains in Warton. With the Hawk trainer line, aircraft dating back to the 1970s, halted since the early '20s. Losing the GCAP train could be the beginning of the end of BAE Systems' capability in the manned aircraft sector.
Commercial opportunities and the Turkish uncertainty
However, around the GCAP it is not only the industrial spin-offs that need to be considered, but also the possible commercial spin-offs. Given the delays of the U.S. and France, the GCAP would be the first sixth-generation aircraft designed for contemporary military challenges and could come to the defense market virtually alone.
In solo, even considering the two new players in international defense, South Korea and Turkey, and their fifth-generation KAI KF-21 Boramae and TAI TF Kaan fighters, both of which are undergoing testing, could hardly compete with the GCAP's philosophy.
However, the Turkish Kaan should not be understimated. While the South Korean Boramae is the one furthest along in development, with six prototypes built, it has yet to see the KF-21EX version with internal weapons compartment fly. While the Kaan, of which only the first prototype has flown to date, given its dimensions of 21 meters in length and 14 meters wingspan, comparable to its Russian-Chinese counterparts, could (engines permitting) have significant cargo capacity.
Of note is how the Turks, originally in the F-35 program, made the SOM, a compact cruise missile comparable to the JSM, suitable for the F-35's weapons compartments. This missile will certainly be integrated into the Kaan, just as Turkish expertise in drones is well known. The Kaan could thus come to market as a kind of fifth-and-a-half generation.
Rome-Tokyo convergences and synergies?
Industrial and commercial considerations aside, in a fantasy-political scenario, could the GCAP program withstand the abandonment of the British partner? For sure there is Saudi interest, confirmed by Cingolani himself, a nation whose air force flies Eurofighters and Tornados. And Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are highly motivated industrial partners who could find beneficial convergences.
Above all, Tokyo, free of any budgetary constraints (deficit-to-GDP ratio of 263 percent to 2023!) and despite an anti-militarist constitution that binds the Armed Forces to a purely defensive role, has always invested heavily in its domestic defense industry. Both to ensure a technological flywheel and to have means perfectly in line with its needs. This is seen with the wide range of domestic aircraft introduced in the past two decades: the Kawasaki C-2 transport, also in use for electronic warfare, the Kawasaki P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious transport, search and rescue aircraft. Aircraft, also equipped with domestic engines as for the P-1.
Japan's defense industry, until Shinzo Abe's 2014 reform, could not engage in export. To date, the various P-1s and C-2s have not found sales abroad, but they remain flagship products that, net of cost, could establish themselves in particular market niches. So much so that in recent weeks Ares Difesa in a dissertation on possible replacements for the KC-767A tankers and C-130J transports in our air force, in addition to the obvious and natural Airbus possibility, A330MRTT and A400 Atlas respectively, also speculated theoretically about Kawasaki C-2s. Pure speculation, perhaps: too many synergies between Leonardo and Airbus from an aerospace perspective.
Even the possible synergies with Tokyo are not to be underestimated. Not least because Tokyo and London will soon have to replace their training aircraft, and there may be new opportunities for Leonardo's M-346. Regarding the Japanese Kawasaki T-4s, the most likely scenario is the U.S. Boeing-Saab T-7 (excluding the Japanese reliance on the South Korean T-50), after all, "training jets" were explicitly mentioned as an example in the Kishida-Biden meeting. But Japan is familiar with the Decimomannu IFTS, and the T-7 has had several delays partly because of the digital engineering that was supposed to speed up its implementation, so from a GCAP perspective there may be some opening for the M-346. The U.K. is also beginning to consider a strategy for the Hawk's successor, and to date the only indigenous program, the Aeralis AJT, still seems far from first flight.
Photo: Japan's Ministry of Defense, Creative Commons
An essayist and popularizer, his publications include "Alessandro Blasetti. The forgotten father of Italian cinema" (Idrovolante, 2023). And with Emanuele Mastrangelo "Wikipedia. The Free Encyclopedia and the Hegemony of Information" (Bietti, 2013) and "Iconoclasm. The contagious insanity of the cancel culture that is destroying our history" (Eclectica, 2020).
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