by

Enrico Petrucci

On July 3, Leonardo and Rheinmetall signed a memorandum to create a 50-50 joint venture in the field of land defense with the primary objective of developing a Main Battle Tank, MBT, for the Italian Army, and the new infantry fighting vehicle based on the Lynx intended to replace the Dardo.

A fundamental agreement both in the Italian defense perspective and in the industrial field, since, as the memorandum reports, 60 percent of the activities will be carried out in Italy. An agreement that comes less than a month after the break between Leonardo and KNDS over the adoption of Leopard 2A8 tanks by the Italian Army. A breakup blamed by many on the unwillingness of KNDS (a Franco-German holding company formed by the merger of France's Nexter with Germany's KMW, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, a firm that had developed Leopard 2 tanks since the 1970s) to allow Leonardo to adopt systems of its own for the Italian Leopard 2s, with the attendant spillover effects on the domestic industry.

The opening of negotiations with Rheinmetall did not come as a surprise to those in the industry, both because of the presence last June at Eurosatory 2024, the main international exhibition of Land and Air-Terrestrial Defense and Security, in the Rheinmetall booth of a KF41 Lynx 120 Fire Support equipped with the HITFACT Mk II turret made by Leonardo itself. Both for some preparatory elements to the agreement between the two defense players that had been anticipated precisely at the Centro Studi Machiavelli's conference La forza terrestre e la sfida dell’innovazione last June 11, as recalled by both Repubblica and Analisi Difesa. The event had been attended by Lorenzo Mariani, co-general manager of Leonardo, and Alessandro Ercolani, CEO of Rheinmetall Italia.

The prospect of this 50-50 joint venture between Leonardo and Rheinmetall is not only optimal from the point of view of the spin-offs for the national industry, but also that on the defense and adaptation of the Italian Army's assets.

The IFV issue

While the failed agreement with KNDS would have made available to the Italian Army the Leopard A28s, surely the champion of European MBTs, it left completely uncovered the issue of IFVs, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, destined to replace the Dardo. As also highlighted during the Machiavelli Defense conference, while the Aries tanks may still merit upgrades as an interim in view of a new MBT, the Dardo fleet, although relatively newer, appears unsuited to the new warfare environment highlighted by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Conflict that has also highlighted the critical role on the battlefield of IFVs capable of carrying a squad of equipped soldiers and simultaneously providing supporting fire, as with the U.S.-made M2 and M7 Bradley. In fact, the latter proved to be perhaps the best Western vehicle available to Ukraine. Although in a different role from the MBT Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams, the Bradley has not disappointed any expectations, wiping out the slate clean of Russian counterparts, and also earning the respect of Kremlin propaganda.

The deal with KNDS left the subject of IFVs completely uncovered, and on the other hand, as Ares Difesa points out, the IFV-side options from the Franco-German conglomerate were not particularly exciting: either the Puma, developed by the Projekt System Management GmbH joint venture between Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall Landsysteme, which has a particularly long and difficult development and has the Bundeswehr as its sole operator having failed to date any foreign orders. Or the tracked variant of the wheeled Boxer, presented indeed at Eurosatory 2022, but currently still undeveloped for operational use.

From the Lynx to the Panther

The Lynx, developed independently by Rheinmetall and available in two variants, the KF31 presented at Eurosatory 2016 and the larger KF41 (capable of a squadron of eight soldiers versus the KF31's six) presented in 2018, has begun to rapidly impose itself on the market, with Hungary the first buyer and possible other contracts in sight. Certainly not a mature vehicle, but surely it currently appears to be the European platform with the best scope for development.

Similar considerations can be made for Rheinmetall's KF51 Panther , now destined to become the Italian Army's new MBT. A vehicle developed independently by the German company and unveiled to the public at Eurosatory 2022 as a prototype based on a Leopard 2A4 hull but equipped with a new turret with a 130 mm self-loading gun, a major innovation for Western MBTs. The KF51-U variant of the Panther equipped with a fully automated turret, with the three operators all in the hull, was presented at Eurosatory 2024 .

The philosophy of automatic loading, allowing the crew of an MBT to be reduced from four to three, has been present in Russian-Soviet doctrine since the 1960s, with the T-64, but has never been implemented in the West. A version of the Leopard with automatic loading had been proposed as early as the 1990s, and at Eurosatory 2024 KNDS presented a Leopard with automatic loading, the Leopard 2 A-RC 3.0, but with a traditional crew distribution unlike the KF51-U.

The difference in philosophy between KNDS and Rheinmetall is obvious. On the one hand is the Leopard: a mature platform with several operators around the world, but a vehicle whose design dates back to the 1970s. On the other is Rheinmetall's attempt to try to produce a newly designed vehicle, while at the moment inheriting from the Leopard 2 the mechanical base that is certainly the element least subject to the radical transformations required by the changed environment that has emerged from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

KF51 Panther as a solution that therefore looks to the future, but without the unknowns of long-term development such as that represented by the MGCS, the Main Ground Combat System, also mentioned in the Rheinmetall and Leonardo press release.

The MGCS Incognita

The MGCS is the program launched by France and Germany initially with KNDS for the new multiplatform system intended to replace the Leopard 2 and Leclerc, the French MBTs. An equal program between the two states that was joined in 2019 by Rheinmetall and has seen interest from other nations as potential observers over the years. Nations including Italy, the subject of MGCS was among the items of discussion with KNDS in the failed Leopard 2A8 deal.

The MCGS's is certainly an ambitious program, but one that, even net of KNDS's quality andexpertise, could easily derail into bureaucratic nightmare. Suffice it to say that preliminary discussions dating back to the 2015 merger between KMW and Nexter led to the signing of the agreement to split the program between France and Germany only in spring 2024, with all the unknowns on the French side regarding post-election fragmentation and the possible governmental role of Melenchon's far left.

In short certainly the Leopard 2A8 would have represented for the Italian Army having the current state of the art. A state of the art in a context of increasingly rapid and potentially radical transformation. And in which the MGCS horizon appears increasingly distant, from 2035 in early projections to 2040 to 2045 mentioned in recent meetings.

A European hub and South Korean activism.

The choice of Rheinmetall and Leonardo to focus on Lynx and Panther appears to be the ideal choice for two industrial entities capable of continuing to innovate and invest independently, offering innovative means to the market even in the absence of government orders.

The unsuccessful agreement with KNDS and the failure to order Leopard 2A8s has been seen by some commentators as a step backward by Italy in the context of the, often hypothetical, issue of common European defense. Almost a matter of lese majesty against the Leopard 2 and its many European and international operators at the level of systems integration.

But it is good to remember how European defense already moves in short order, perhaps even ignoring the respective national champions, and that "common defense" most of the time is just rhetoric good for the headlines. Suffice it to recall the issue of the ’European Sky Shield Initiative, ESSI, promoted by Germany and then at the European level also by Von der Leyen, a program for European missile defense, which for the long and very long range relies on the U.S. Patriot and the Israeli Arrow-3, relying on European weapons only for medium range with German-made IRIS-T SLMs. And deliberately ignoring Franco-Italian SAMP-Ts (France and Italy are not part of ESSI for the time being).

Or the issue of South Korean activism that is consolidating itself as a relevant competitor to European defense players. On Machiavelli's Belfablog we were among the first to talk about it, and in the meantime the market penetration of Seoul's defense industry armored vehicles continues. The K2 Black Panther MBTs have already been adopted by Poland, are also in pole position for Romania, under evaluation by Slovakia, and also being considered by Norway. So too are K9 Thunder self-propelled vehicles in Poland, Finland, Estonia, Norway and in order for Romania. Of the South Korean tracked vehicles, only the IFV K21 is currently not yet employed by European armies, but could be selected by Romania.

Seoul, having to keep its unwieldy northern brother at bay, being able to afford to invest without the brainy budget constraints of Brussels, and having an absolutely complete industry chain from steel mills to microchip factories, can now boast a substantial range of products in the defense sphere. Going so far as to sell tanks even in the backyard of those who invented the tank and its employment doctrines.

So we welcome the initiative of Rheinmetall and Leonardo even regardless of the fallout for Italian industry. Because in a certain industrial immobility of the European Union, while waiting for the MGCS, one would have risked ending up with a supplier of means, parts and service on the other side of Asia.

Photo: Rheinmetall

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An essayist and popularizer, his publications include "Alessandro Blasetti. The forgotten father of Italian cinema" (Idrovolante, 2023). And with Emanuele Mastrangelo "Wikipedia. The Free Encyclopedia and the Hegemony of Information" (Bietti, 2013) and "Iconoclasm. The contagious insanity of the cancel culture that is destroying our history" (Eclectica, 2020).