Decoding the Israeli-Gaza Conflict through Complexity Theory

In Dossier No. 47, produced with a grant from the Augustus Foundation, Silvia Pizzigoni examines the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza by analyzing it according to complexity theory.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Complexity theory, a branch of System Theory, has been applied in various fields, including human geography and international relations.
• Complexity Theory allows for a comprehensive understanding of the conflict’s nature and potential solutions by highlighting its non-linear and unpredictable dynamics. The structure of the conflict is characterized by a variety of actors, density of interrelations, and openness to outside events.
• The dynamics of the conflict exhibit non-linearity, unpredictability, feedback loops, sensitivity to initial conditions, emergence of properties, and non-hierarchisability.
• Patterns of non-linearity, feedback loops, attractors, self-organization, emergence, robustness, and resilience contribute to the perpetuation of the conflict. Despite periodic ceasefire agreements, lasting peace remains elusive. The intricate layers of the conflict call for a nuanced and comprehensive approach rooted in Complexity Theory to address the interconnected variables and actors involved, paving the way towards sustainable peace.

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