From Britain to Italy, the consensus crisis of the Right
In Britain, the Conservative Party, in government for more than a decade, is in great anxiety. Only six months ago it found itself with an overwhelming majority in parliament, an advantage (often in double digits) in the polls for more than 100 weeks and an opposition torn apart by the ideological distance of its activists from the majority of the electorate. In recent weeks, however, not only has the head of government, Boris Johnson, been on the grill, with a serious risk of a government crisis, but Labour finds itself 10 points ahead in the polls in the event of new elections.
What has happened? The British experience can also be a lesson for the Italian right, which has been declining in popularity for a few years now, both in terms of polls and actual electoral results, local elections data in hand. Johnson's problem is the same as Salvini's: a disappointed and demoralized electorate.
The flight to abstentionism
There is a significant difference between those who vote left and those who vote right. The former vote for their party always and in any case: regardless of the importance of the electoral round and the qualities of the candidate. There is an ideological and class loyalty for those voters who live in big cities, work for large multinational corporations, are geographically mobile and consume mainstream media culture without any critical sense.
Johnson's right like Salvini's right, on the other hand, had managed to make inroads in the suburbs, among the losers of globalization, motivated by a strong national sense. Many of these voters came from decades of voting working class on the left. Their loyalty is neither guaranteed nor discounted; theirs was a protest vote. Once again, data in hand, these voters are not returning to the left but, more simply, are giving up voting because they feel betrayed by their representatives.
For the globalist elite, this is the ideal scenario. Half of the population renounces to vote, as they consider it useless, and resign themselves to their fate. Those who do vote are the loyal supporters of the elites. The facade of democracy is maintained - which is necessary for those who want to show themselves as benevolent leaders.
The reasons for discouragement
Why is the popular electorate disappointed? Here the situation between Italy and Great Britain diverges. The problem of the Tories is that their elected representatives, in terms of education, class, culture and ideological preferences, at the end of the day, are not too different from the Labour voter: more interested in environmental crusades (offloading the costs to the community), often sympathetic to the woke fashions coming from the USA (with LGBTIIAQ+ or BLM religion celebrations), scarcely attentive to issues of security and patriotic culture that instead animate their own voters (borders, national identity, crime). Add to this a series of gross errors by Johnson himself and the damage is done.
In Italy, on the other hand, Salvini's League, after an initial shift in the polls in favor of Fratelli d'Italia during the opposition to the second Conte Government, has returned to government with Draghi. A pro-European turn, often invoked by leftist newspapers, towards a "center" that electorally does not exist. The votes gained are zero. The League from first party has often dropped to third place. The left-wing newspapers are reassured. Salvini is no longer a threat, neither ideologically nor electorally. The doubt remains that the pro-European press is not too interested in suggesting to the League swings that could favor its electoral success: far from it.
The trap of the never-ending health emergency
Salvini and the League seem to be trapped. As long as the pandemic emergency persists, the mainstream will not talk about anything else. At most, it will try to find new reasons to prolong the emergency, such as harassing the unvaccinated and violating their constitutional rights, with the full consent of the judiciary. As long as they do not talk about anything else, most of the voters do not even go to vote anymore. A year from the elections, the scenario for the elites is ideal: Presidents of the Republic and the Council in strong pro-European hands, neutralized opposition, total control of the narrative on hot topics (we speak only and exclusively of the virus).
Perhaps for this reason Johnson has decided to put an end to the pandemic, now more mediatic than anything else. In Italy, on the other hand, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction: a permanent emergency and with it technical governments of a pro-EU nature.
The guaranteed decline.