In Dossier n. 31 Giovanni Giacalone analyzes the situation in Afghanistan after the return to power of the Taliban.
- The Afghanistan back in Taliban hands is different from the one they ruled twenty years ago: less backward, with more infrastructure and some chance of normal foreign relations.
- The Talibans no longer need al Qaeda, as they did in the 1990s, for economic support. However, they may lack both the will and the ability to contain it. Al Qaeda could regain supremacy among jihadists, to the detriment of ISIS.
- The internal tensions in Afghanistan are multiple, starting from the ethnic ones. Even the Talibans have internal factions: the most fierce and antagonistic are the Haqqani Network (very close to Pakistan) and the Kandahar network headed by the son of Mullah Omar.
- Pakistan continues in its double game between the West and the Talibans. It wants to contain Pashtun separatism and gain a friendly regime in anti-Indian function. But it risks being overwhelmed.
- To understand where Afghanistan will go we must wait for the new Taliban regime to stabilize. The most optimistic hope in its normalization but the risk of an open support to al-Qaeda remains. An ambiguous attitude is still more likely.
READ ONLINEDossier 31 - Il nuovo vecchio Afghanistan
Researcher of Centro Studi Politici e Strategici Machiavelli. Graduated in Sociology (University of Bologna), Master in "Islamic Studies" (Trinity Saint David University of Wales), specialization in "Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism" (International Counter-Terrorism Institute of Herzliya, Israel). He is senior analyst for the British Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism-ITCT, theItalian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies (Catholic University of Milan) and the Kedisa-Center for International Strategic Analysis. Lecturer for security managerlaw enforcement and post-degree courses, he has been coordinator for Italy of the European project Globsec. “From criminals to terrorists and back” and is co-founder of Sec-Ter- Security and Terrorism Observation and Analysis Group.