The Middle East after the killing of Soleimani. Analysis and forecasts on the US-Iran clash is the twenty-second Dossier of the Machiavelli, author Daniele Scalea.
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- Iran has been fighting for thirty years a multi-level war in the Middle East region with its Sunni adversaries and with the United States. In the last twenty years, however, it has scored numerous diplomatic and military successes that have allowed it an unprecedented regional projection.
- Iraq at the moment is the main theater of confrontation with the United States. The latter are present in the country with military bases, while Iran intends to exert its influence on Baghdad through the pro-Tehran component of the Shiite majority of the population, in order to obtain an uninterrupted chain of allies from the Euphrates to the Mediterranean, passing through Syria and Lebanon.
- The killing of Iranian General Qassim Soleimani, following a US retaliation for the escalation of attacks conducted by Shiite militias in Iraq, is representing a new acme in the tension between Washington and Tehran. However, a scenario of open war remains highly unlikely, as much for the impossibility on the Iranian side to sustain a conflict with the US as for the need of the Trump administration to disengage from the policies of previous presidencies, favoring strategies of progressive disengagement of Washington from conflicts.
- In this panorama of tension, the main front of confrontation, besides the possibility of asymmetrical actions by Tehran, seems to be that of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. But for the Persian strategy this knot should remain unresolved at least until the conclusion of the presidential elections in the USA in 2020, where Iran hopes for the victory of a democrat who will soften Washington's positions.
Founder and President of Centro Studi Machiavelli. Graduated in Historical Sciences (University of Milan) and PhD in Political Studies (Sapienza University), he is professor of "History and doctrine of jihadism" and "Geopolitics of the Middle East" at Cusano University. From 2018 to 2019 he was Special Advisor on Immigration and Terrorism to the Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Guglielmo Picchi. His latest book (as editor) is Topicality of sovereignism. Between pandemic and war.